The Florida Shockwave: Navigating 29% Oil Swings, "TACO" Trades, and the High-Performance Core Supply

In the last 24 hours, the global economy has felt the full force of "Operation Epic Fury" and the subsequent geopolitical whiplash. For UK manufacturers sourcing high-performance cores, tape cores, and carpet tubes, the volatility is no longer a forecast—it is a daily battle for stability.

The Doral Summary: What Happened in Florida?

Last night at his National Doral club in Miami, President Trump addressed the nation regarding the ongoing war with Iran. He suggested that the military campaign is "very complete, pretty much," describing it as a "short-term excursion" to "get rid of some evil".

However, the market reaction wasn't based on military success, but on the "TACO" factor.

The "TACO" Effect and the $119 Oil Whiplash

In investor circles, TACO stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out"—a term describing the President's tendency to issue massive threats only to later de-escalate as a way to let markets rebound.

• The Spike: On Monday, Brent crude rocketed to a record high of $119.50 per barrel, a 29% jump as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed.

• The De-escalation: Following Trump’s signals in Florida that the war was nearing completion, oil "tanked" back towards the $90 mark.... Still $30 per barrel more than pre war prices.

While the price drop is a relief, the sheer speed of a $30 intraday swing makes standard procurement impossible. If your supplier bought their raw material at 2 PM on Monday, they are now holding stock that is "priced in" at the peak of the crisis.

While G7 Holds Its Breath, JPT Releases Its Buffer!

Why Energy Inflation is "Sticky": The Burnt Value Problem

At JPT, we often explain to our partners why energy inflation is so much more dangerous than material inflation. When you buy a paper tube, the cardboard has residual value—it can be recycled and sold back into the chain.

Energy is different. The gas used to dry the paper and the electricity used to wind a high-performance core is "burnt." Once it is consumed, it is gone forever. There is no residual value in a burnt kilowatt. This means that when European TTF natural gas prices surged by 30% on Monday, that cost was immediately and permanently "baked into" the product.

Unlike the paper itself, which fluctuates, "burnt" energy costs represent a permanent loss of margin that must be passed on.

G7 Holds Firm, JPT Releases: Our Strategic Buffer

While the G7 nations met and ultimately decided not to release their strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) to stabilize the market, JPT is taking the opposite approach.

We believe that sitting on reserves while customers suffer from supply-chain whiplash is counterproductive. Just as the US maintains its SPR, JPT has established the UK’s largest independent raw material warehouse.

To maintain a consistent supply of high-quality carpet tubes and industrial cores, we have proactively begun "releasing" our strategic reserves. Our £1m investment a few years ago in a huge Raw Materials Warehouse was built exactly for a moment like this—acting as a vital shield while global shipping and energy markets remain in turmoil.

Sure... it adds to our overhead costs. Maintaining the UK’s largest independent coreboard warehouse isn't cheap, but in a week where we’ve seen a 29% swing in oil prices and a 30% surge in European TTF gas, that overhead is the only thing standing between our customers and a total supply-chain shutdown.

A Necessary Market Adjustment: We must be transparent: the global market has shifted so significantly that a price adjustment is now inevitable. We are currently in the process of replacing our utilised buffer stock, but we are doing so at today’s significantly higher market rates. Because of this ongoing replacement cycle and the extreme volatility of "burnt" energy costs, we cannot yet define the exact extent of these changes.

Absorbing the Initial Shock: Thanks to our 12-week strategic position and low debt-leverage, we aren't forced to pass on the full, immediate cost of Monday’s 29% oil swing or 30% TTF gas spike. We are using our reserves to absorb the initial blow, providing our customers with much-needed breathing room while we work to stabilise future pricing.

Financial Stability: Our robust financial backing means we are not buying "hand-to-mouth." This allows us to manage these spikes strategically rather than reactively, ensuring that when prices do move, they are based on calculated market realities rather than a single day of panic.

In a world where energy and raw materials are being used as geopolitical leverage, the old rules of "cheapest is best" have been torn up. At JPT, we are open about the fact that we might not always be the cheapest option on a spreadsheet today. However, in this climate, being the cheapest is irrelevant if you cannot actually deliver the product.

We have spent years investing in our financial independence, our low-debt leverage, and the UK’s largest independent warehouse for one reason: to be the most resilient and reliable partner in the industry. We provide the shield that ensures your production lines stay moving when global markets "burn" out.

Not a JPT Customer? 3 Questions for Your Current Supplier

If you aren't currently protected by our strategic coreboard reserves, your supply chain is likely exposed to "blind spots" in procurement. To see if your provider is truly prepared for this level of global shift, ask them:

1. "How wide is your current supplier base? Are you tied to a single multi-national major who has already started to implement 'lockstep' pricing, or do you have the independence to source globally for the best value?"

2. "Have you even reacted to Monday’s 30% energy spike yet? If you haven't adjusted your procurement or stockholding strategy in the last week, how do you plan to protect our supply when your current 'hand-to-mouth' stock runs out?"

3. "What is your current level of debt leverage? Do you have the cashflow and financial backing to maintain a multi-week buffer, or are your debt obligations forcing you to be reactionary rather than proactive?"

At JPT, we aren't just making paper tubes; we are providing the certainty that your business can keep moving forward, regardless of the headlines.