The Morning After the Night Before: A Budget Survival Guide

Date: 27 November 2025 Author: Harry Coates, Managing Director

If you were listening to the Today programme on Radio 4 this morning, you were treated to a masterclass in semantics.

When grilled on whether she had broken her manifesto pledge not to raise taxes on "working people," the Chancellor’s defense was technically accurate but practically meaningless. She stuck to the line that the rates of Income Tax, VAT, and NI haven't risen.

Which is true.

But as any business owner knows, if you freeze thresholds while wages rise (hello, "fiscal drag"), you are raising taxes. It’s a stealth tax, plain and simple. And when you combine that with the stealthy erosion of disposable income, the result for the UK economy is predictable: less cash in pockets means less spending in shops.

And less spending means a quieter market for everyone.

The "Quiet Market" Reality

The OBR’s forecasts confirm what we all suspected: real disposable household income is set to be squeezed. When people feel poorer, they buy fewer things. When they buy fewer things, they need fewer boxes, fewer packets, and—yes—fewer cardboard tubes.

We are bracing for a period of "consumption hesitation." Retailers will order less stock, manufacturers will slow down lines, and the supply chain will get quiet.

So, why aren't we panicking?

Because at Just Paper Tubes, we built our business model to survive the quiet times, not just ride the booms. Our high efficiency and low overheads mean we don't need a booming economy to offer a competitive price. We are the safe, stable option when the market gets jittery.

The Living Wage Jump (The "Ouch" Moment)

The big headline yesterday was another significant hike to the National Living Wage. Great news for workers, but a serious headache for any manufacturer that relies heavily on manual labour.

Usually, when the wage bill spikes, suppliers have two choices:

1. Panic.

2. Send you an email titled "Important Update Regarding Our Pricing" (which is code for "Panic").

Why we aren't panicking: It isn't because we’ve replaced everyone with robots. It’s because we believe in paying people properly.

While other manufacturers are currently hyperventilating because they have to drag their pay bands up to meet the new minimum, we are already there. In fact, our entry-level pay has been sitting comfortably above this "new" higher rate for quite some time.

We invested in high-efficiency machinery so we could invest in our people. Because we run a tight, high-speed ship, we don’t have to squeeze wages to protect our margins. That means no panic, no sudden surcharges, and your label cores stay competitively priced.

A Quick Reality Check (Because We Aren't Magicians)

Does this mean our prices are frozen in time forever? No.

We are efficient, but we aren't immune to the UK economy. With inflation still sticking stubbornly high and raw material costs fluctuating, there may come a time when we have to make pricing adjustments to protect the quality of your supply.

But here is our promise: If we do have to move on price, we will do exactly what we did this past Summer. We will consult with you first. We will explain the "why," we will do everything we can to minimize the impact, and we will give you notice.

The "Jam Tomorrow" Energy Relief

Finally, the government promised (again) to look at industrial electricity prices... eventually.

Thanks. That’s very helpful. We’ll just tell the machines to run on "hopes and dreams" until 2027, shall we?

The Reality: We didn't wait for a government scheme. As you know, we built our own power plant. While other tube manufacturers are staring at their calendars waiting for relief, we are running on sunshine today. (Or, given it's November in Yorkshire, maybe not "sunshine," but at least it's not cold!).

The Boring Conclusion

Yesterday was a day of high drama, shouted interruptions, and complicated maths.

At Just Paper Tubes, we don't do drama. We do cardboard.

While the rest of the industry is currently in a meeting with their accountants trying to figure out the new payroll numbers, we are just doing what we always do: producing 50 million industrial cores a year, on time, and without a fuss.

In a world of Budget "debacles," we are proudly, delightfully boring.

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